The growth estimate for 2023-24 hovers around 6.3-6.5 percent, with different organizations providing their projections. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) sticks with 6.5 percent, citing the 7.8 percent growth in Q1 2024, driven by personal consumption and fixed capital formation. The World Bank expects slower
personal consumption and government spending but higher exports at 9.2 percent. The IMF revised its growth estimate upward to 6.3 percent, encouraged by strong consumption during April-June 2023 and expects a lower current account deficit. Common
themes include the importance of personal consumption and the role of exports to compensate for manufacturing decline.
The low share of manufacturing in economic growth, with services dominating, is a long-term trend. Private investment and
manufacturing’s role in growth appear uncertain. The impact on jobs and incomes needs analysis, as manufacturing’s value addition is relatively low. Policymakers aim to increase manufacturing’s share, but
the challenge is significant given historical growth rates.