A recent report from Anand Rathi predicts that crude oil prices will remain high due to recovering demand and OPEC’s supply cuts, benefiting companies like ONGC and Oil India. Healthy refining margins, especially for diesel and ATF, will favor Indian refiners. Anand Rathi initiates coverage on ONGC and Oil India with ‘Buy’ recommendations.
Oil India is their top pick, with some cautioned risks. Upstream companies are expected to benefit from high crude prices, stable gas prices, and increased
production.
Since FY15, crude price realization has been free of government controls, with a cap of $77/bbl imposed in Q1 FY23 due to geopolitical tensions.
Both ONGC and Oil India have invested in volume growth, anticipating natural declines. For Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), there may be earnings volatility leading up to general elections.
OMCs are likely to face uncertainty with rising crude oil
prices and upcoming state elections, but government support aims to stabilize the situation.
Anand Rathi favors OMCs as they don’t expect crude oil prices to reach FY23 highs.
In City Gas Distribution, IGL and MGL have performed well due to government
policies, while GAIL is seen as well-set with favorable tariffs.
Anand Rathi recommends ‘Buy’ for GAIL, ‘Hold’ for IGL and MGL, and ‘Sell’ for Gujarat Gas, with
respective price targets indicating potential upsides or downsides.